Prognostic scoring system in hepatocellular carcinoma patients with portal vein tumor thrombus to predict the prognosis of hepatic resection / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors for overall survival in operable hepatocellular carcinoma with portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT-HCC) patients and establish a scoring system.Methods:Survival data in 253 PVTT-HCC patients were retrospectively analyzed in Guangxi Medical University Affiliated Tumor Hospital. Survival curves were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. Cox stepwise regression analysis was used to identify independent preoperative risk factors affecting overall survival. A prognostic scoring system based on independent risk factors and their relative coefficients was established to screen patients with greater hepatic resection benefits, and the identification ability of the model was based on ROC.Results:A total of 253 patients with PVTT-HCC were enrolled in this study, there were 222 males and 31 females, with a median age 44 years. The median survival time in all patients was (13.00±2.15) months. Rate of overall survival was 51.8% at 1 year, 25.0% at 3 years and 17.7% at 5 years. Multivariable Cox regression analyses showed four risk factors including AST≥40 U/L, ALP (≥80 U/L), tumor number (>1), and incomplete tumor capsule. A prognostic scoring system was established based on these variables. The area under curve of the scoring system was 0.780 (95% CI 0.715-0.845). Patients were classified as low- or high-risk group for hepatic resection depending on whether their score was <3 ( n=77) or ≥3 ( n=176), respectively. High-risk patients had a median survival of 10 months, compared to 29 months in low-risk patients. Low-risk patients also had better survival rates at 1 year (75.3% vs 41.5%), 3 years (47.6% vs 15.2%), and 5 years (34.7% vs 10.5%), P<0.05. Conclusion:A prognostic scoring system for hepatic resection in PVTT-HCC patients has been developed based entirely on preoperative variables. Using this system, patients belong to the low risk group have better prognosis after surgery, which can provide a basis for surgical treatment of PVTT-HCC patients.