Establishment and evaluation of a method for predicting 10-year risk of first stroke with cerebrovascular function score / 中华神经科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To establish a 10-year comparison table of cerebrovascular function score and first stroke risk, and to provide a new method for screening of high-risk population of stroke.Methods:In the beginning of 2003, a cohort for studing stroke risk factors in those aged 40 years and over was established in a community of Shanghai by cluster sampling. The common risk factors of stroke were investigated with a unified questionnaire, and the cerebrovascular function (cerebral vascular hemodynamic indexes, CVHI) was measured. The baseline study was completed from April to June 2003 and December 2004 to January 2005, respectively. The incident of first stroke and all cause of death were followed up year by year. The follow-up period was up to December 31, 2014. The 10-year incidence of first stroke was calculated according to the baseline score of cerebrovascular function, and the score-risk control table was established to estimate 10-year first stroke risk in each score group. The role of cerebrovascular function score in stroke was also estimated.Results:The follow-up term of 10 565 participants was (10.26±2.00) years, and 350 patients had first stroke during the follow-up. The trend 10-year incidence of first stroke both in men and women was significantly increased with the decrease of the score of cerebrovascular function (trend χ2=296.125, P<0.01). As the 10-year risk of first stroke was higher than 5% and higher than 10%, the corresponding CVHI score was lower than 70 and 40 points in males and lower than 30 and 20 points in females. When the scores of cerebral vascular function were divided by every 25 points, incidence of first stroke in each group from top to bottom was 1.9%, 4.7%, 10.8%, 15.2% in males and 1.6%, 4.4%, 4.8%, 11.4% in females, respectively. As compared to the top, the relative risk (95% CI) of first stroke in the lower groups was 2.61(1.67-4.07), 6.46(4.22-9.89), 9.74(6.53-14.52) for males and 2.82(1.93-4.12), 3.15(1.99-4.99), 8.12(5.65-11.68) for females, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that the factors being selected into the regression equation were cerebrovascular function score, age, hypertension history, stroke family history and smoking history, among which the role of cerebrovascular function score was the strongest. Conclusion:The risk of first stroke increases significantly with the decrease of cerebrovascular function score, which can be used to assess the 10-year risk of first stroke.