Comparison of ARIMAX and multivariate LSTM model in predicting daily death toll in Yancheng City / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To compare the effects of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model-X (ARIMAX) and multivariate Long Short Term Memory Network (multivariate LSTM) in the prediction of daily total death toll in Yancheng City. Methods Based on total death toll data, meteorological data and air quality data from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th,2017 in Yancheng City, Jiangsu province, ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were established to predict the daily total death toll from July 1st,2017 to July 14th,2017. RMSE, MAE and MAPE were used as evaluation indexes to compare the prediction effects of these two models. Results RMSE, MAE and MAPE of ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were 20.742、15.094、9.921 and 47.182、35.863、19.633, respectively. Conclusion ARIMAX model is better than multivariate LSTM model to predict the daily death toll in Yancheng city.