Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in Minhang District of Shanghai in 2010-2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, to predict the number of cases in 2021, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis. Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the epidemic data of viral hepatitis in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2010 to 2020. The Holt-Winters additive model was used to predict the incidence of viral hepatitis in the future. Results A total of 10 769 cases of viral hepatitis were reported in Minhang District, Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, with an average annual incidence rate of 38.81/100 000. The reported cases were mainly concentrated in the central urban areas with dense population and large flow of people. The reported population was mainly concentrated in the 20-60 years old (78.2%). The ratio of male to female was 1.921. Retirees accounted for the largest proportion of all types of hepatitis. The Holt-Winters additive model predicted 958 cases in 2021. Conclusion The overall prevention and control of viral hepatitis in Minhang District have achieved great success, but still face challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen the publicity and intervention to the floating population, especially the young, middle-aged and retired people, and to strengthen the surveillance to reduce the infection rate.