Prediction of Prenatal Ultrasound Screening Staff's Situation in Beijing Based on ARIMA Model / 中国医学科学院学报

ABSTRACT

Objective To understand the current situation and predict the trends in number and composition of prenatal ultrasound screening staff in Beijing. Methods We analyzed the region,age,professional title and other characteristics of prenatal ultrasound screening personnel in Beijing during 2007-2015.We then built an ARIMA model basing on the current situation to predict the number and composition of the staff in 2016-2020. Results The number of prenatal ultrasound screening staff showed an upward trend in 2007-2020 and was predicted to reach 1269 in 2020.During this period,the educational achievement and professional title of the staff showed a downward trend,and the working years became shorter,mainly below 5 years.The proportion of resident doctors remained at 26.6%,and that of the staff receiving further education would reach 43.2% by the end of 2020. Conclusion The prediction under ARIMA model suggests that efforts should be made to strengthen the training of young doctors and provide them opportunities for further study.