Seasonal characteristics and time series analysis of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 / 上海预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the seasonal characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2019 in Shanghai， and provide references for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis E. Methods:The seasonal characteristics of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 were analyzed by circular distribution method. The incidence trend of hepatitis E was analyzed by ARIMA （autoregressive moving average model）. Results:The peak period of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 was from November 17 to June 9， and the peak day was on February 27. The time series shows that the optimal model is SARIMA（0，1，1）×（0，1，1）12， Akaike information criterion（AIC） and Schwartz Bayesian information criterion （SBC） are 1 243.799 and 1 250.035 respectively， and the residual is white noise sequence. The mean absolute percentage error（MAPE）between the predicted value， and the actual value of this model is 20.253%. The forecast shows a slight decrease in the number of cases of hepatitis E in 2020-2021 compared with 2019， but it is still at a high level. Conclusion:The incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai shows a solid seasonal characteristic. Health education and prevention/control measures should be conducted well before the epidemic peak. Based on the short-term prediction， the incidence of hepatitis E would still be high. Effective prevention and control strategies should be developed， and active measures should be taken.