Empirical Research on the Influential Factors of Chinese Crude Drug Price Based on SVAR Model / 中国药房

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE：To explore th e influential factors of the price fluctuation of Chinese crud drug ，and to provide reference for the healthy development of tranditional Chinese medicine industry in China. METHODS ：Based on the relevant statistics from 1992 to 2019，a structural vector autoregressive model was established. After data stationarity test ，cointegration relationship test ，model estimation and stability test ，impulse response function and variance decomposition were used to investigate the impact of supply ，demand，cost of implantation and production and inflation on the price of Chinese crud drug. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS：There was a long-term equilibrium relationship among the price of Chinese crud drug ，planting area of Chinese crud drug ，output of Chinese patent medicine ，market turnover of Chinese crud drug ，export volume of Chinese crud drug ，price index of agricultural means of production and consumer price index. The price of Chinese crud drug had the greatest impact and contribution rate on itself ，followed by planting area of Chinese crud drug ，export volume of Chinese crud drug and price index of agricultural means of production. However ，the output of Chinese patent medicine ，the turnover of Chinese crud drug market and consumer price index had weak influence. It is suggested to make full use of Internet information technology ，strengthen the price monitoring and early warning of Chinese crud drug ，promote the supply side structural reform of tranditional Chinese medicine industry，improve the scientific and technological level of Chinese crud drug planting and promote large-scale production of Chinese herbal medicine so as to stabilize the price of Chinese crud drug.