iScore and serum homocysteine predict early neurological deterioration in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of the ischemic stroke predictive risk score (iScore) and serum homocysteine (Hcy) for early neurological deterioration (END) in patients with acute ischemic stroke.Methods:Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University from July 2018 to June 2020 were enrolled retrospectively. END was defined as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score within 7 d after admission increased by ≥2 from the baseline. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent correlations of iScore and serum Hcy level with END, and then the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the individual and combined predictive values of iScore and serum Hcy for END. Results:A total of 398 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled, including 241 (60.6%) males, aged 65.02±12.17 years. The baseline NIHSS score was 12.15±5.67 and iScore was 124.58±37.51, and 103 patients (25.9%) developed END. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in atrial fibrillation, fasting blood glucose, serum Hcy, stroke etiology type (large artery atherosclerosis and small artery occlusion), baseline NIHSS score and iScore between the END group and the non-END group (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, atrial fibrillation, fasting blood glucose, and stroke etiology type, the iScore (odds ratio [ OR] 1.016, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.009-1.040; P=0.004), serum Hcy ( OR 1.191, 95% CI 1.075-1.588; P<0.001) and baseline NIHSS score ( OR 1.289, 95% CI 1.101-1.613; P=0.023) had significant independent correlation with END. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of iScore combined with serum Hcy for predicting END was 0.859 (95% CI 0.820-0.898; P<0.001), which was significantly higher than that of iScore or serum Hcy alone ( P<0.001). The sensitivity and specificity of combined prediction were 81.55% and 85.76%, respectively. Conclusion:The iScore combined with serum Hcy has higher predictive value for END in patients with acute ischemic stroke.