Clinical characteristics and early prediction of acute respiratory distress syndrome in severe acute pancreatitis / 中华胰腺病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the clinical characteristics and predictors of severe acute pancreatitis complicated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (SAP-ARDS).Methods:Clinical data of consecutive 313 SAP patients hospitalized from January 2000 to January 2020 in Peking Union Medical College Hospital, were retrospectively analyzed, including 258 cases with ARDS (ARDS group) and 55 cases without ARDS (non-ARDS group). According to the severity of ARDS, ARDS group were further divided into mild ARDS group (165 cases) and moderate to severe ARDS group (93 cases). Clinical symptoms, laboratory examination and imaging results, ICU admission time and clinical outcome, as well as the local and systemic complications, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHEⅡ) within 24 h after admission, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), CT severity index (CTSI), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and quick sequenctial organ failure assessment(qSOFA) score were recorded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to analyze independent risk factors of SAP complicated with moderate to severe ARDS. Receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) was drawn to calculate area under the ROC curve (area under curve, AUC) and evaluate the performance of WBC and hsCRP in predicting SAP complicated with moderate to severe ARDS, and assess the performance of APACHEⅡ, BISAP, CTSI, SOFA and qSOFA scores in predicting SAP-ARDS endotracheal intubation.Results:The ICU length of stay and mortality rate of SAP-ARDS patients were significantly higher than those without ARDS [(8.3±11.6 day vs 5.7±7.7 day, 12.4% vs 3.6%, all P value <0.05)]. Univariate analysis showed that elevated WBC ( OR 4.52, 95% CI 1.64-12.4) and hsCRP ( OR 3.69, 95% CI 1.29-10.48) on admission were independent risk factors for moderate to severe ARDS with SAP. The AUC of WBC and hsCRP for predicting SAP with moderate to severe ARDS at admission were 0.651(95% CI 0.532-0.770) and 0.615 (95% CI 0.500-0.730), respectively. The predicted cut-off values (Cut-off values) were 17.5×10 9/L and 159 mg/L, respectively, and the sensitivity was 53.1% and 78.1%, the specificity was 78.1% and 48.4% respectively. The area under the ROC curve for APACHEⅡ, BISAP, CTSI, SOFA, and qSOFA score 24 h after admission in the early prediction of endotracheal intubation were 0.739 (95% CI 0.626-0.840), 0.705 (95% CI 0.602-0.809), 0.753 (95% CI 0.650-0.849 ), 0.737 (95% CI 0.615-0.836) and 0.663 (95% CI 0.570-0.794), and the optimum Cut-off values were 14 points, 3 points, 5 points, 7 points, 2 points, and the sensitivity and specificity for these predictors were 58.8% and 81.4%, 79.4% and 60.0%, 73.5% and 67.1%, 38.2% and 98.6%, 45.5% and 83.3%, respectively. Conclusions:Elevated blood WBC and hsCRP on admission were independent risk factors for moderate to severe ARDS in SAP. APACHEⅡ≥14, BISAP≥3, CTSI≥5, SOFA≥7, or qSOFA≥2 within the 24 h admission indictaed that the risk of SAP patients to receive endotracheal intubation was high.