Predictive effect of CHA2DS2-VASc score on long-term prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism by using propensity score matching method / 中国医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the predictive effect of CHA2DS2-VASc score on the long-term prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism (APE).Methods:Patients who were diagnosed with acute pulmonary embolism in the department of respiratory medicine of Binzhou Second People′s Hospital and Hebei Provincial People′s Hospital from October 2014 to October 2018 were continuously included, and the included patients were divided into two groups according to the CHA2DS2-VASc score 319 cases in the low CHA2DS2-VASc group (<4 points), and 79 cases in the high CHA2DS2-VASc group (≥4 points). Then the propensity score matching method was used to balance the covariates between the two groups, and then the CHA2DS2-VASc score was used to predict the long-term prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism.Results:The Geneva score, D-dimer level and APE-related adverse events in high CHA2DS2-VASc group were significantly higher than those with low CHA2DS2-VASc group, with statistically significant differences ( P<0.05). The multiple COX regression model showed that the incidence of pulmonary embolism associated adverse events was significantly increased 2.820-fold (95% CI 1.366-5.822) in the high CHA2DS2-VASc group compared with in the low CHA2DS2-VASc group. After propensity score matching, high CHA2DS2-VASc score was still a strong predictor of poor prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism ( HR 3.421, 95% CI 2.164-5.408). Conclusions:After using propensity score matching method balances confounding bias, high CHA2DS2-VASc score is still an independent prognostic risk factors of acute pulmonary embolism.