Establishment and verification of risk prediction model for postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery / 中华麻醉学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To establish the risk prediction models for postoperative delirium (POD) in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery and to evaluate the predictive efficacy.Methods:A total of 685 patients of both sexes, aged 65-90 yr, of American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status Ⅰ-Ⅳ, who underwent non-cardiac elective surgery requiring tracheal intubation during general anesthesia in general surgery, orthopedics, urology, hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery in our hospital from January 2020 to December 2020, were selected.Patients were assigned to the training set and validation set at a ratio of 7∶3 using a simple random sampling method.The clinical data of patients in the perioperative period were collected, and the patients were followed up within 1-7 days after operation (or before discharge), and the occurrence of POD was recorded.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent risk factors for POD.The risk prediction model for POD was established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis of the training set, a nomogram and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were drawn, and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated.The validation set was used to verify the prediction model and assess the efficacy of the risk prediction model for POD.Results:A total of 653 patients were enrolled in this study, 139 patients developed POD, and the incidence was 21.3%.The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age, high ASA physical status classification, low preoperative Mini-Mental State Examination score, complication with diabetes mellitus, low years of education, high preoperative Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index scale score, long anesthesia time and high numerical rating scale score after operation were independent risk factors for POD in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.The risk prediction model for POD was established based on the independent risk factors mentioned above.The AUC of the training set was 0.981, the Youden index was 0.881, the sensitivity was 95.95%, and the specificity was 92.92%; the AUC of the validation set was 0.939, the Youden index was 0.795, the sensitivity was 94.44%, and the specificity was 85.09%.Conclusion:The risk prediction model for POD established based on age, ASA physical status classification, history of diabetes melittus, years of education, preoperative Mini-Mental State Examination score, preoperative Pittsburgh sleep quality index scale score, anesthesia time and postoperative numerical rating scale score has good predictive efficacy in elderly patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.