Estimation of physician demand based on an unequal weight combination forecasting model / 中华医院管理杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To measure the demand of physicians in 2020-2035 period by constructing an unequal weight combination forecasting model, and to provide scientific reference for health manpower planning.Methods:This study called into play the trend extrapolation method, human/population ratio method and health service demand method to preliminarily predict the demand of physicians in 2020-2035, followed by Delphi method to carry out unequal weight combination of the results of these three methods. Hence the physicians demand in 2020-2035 in China was calculated.Results:Based on the unequal weight combination forecasting model, the physicians demand of the period in China was estimated to increase from 2.64 people / 1 000 population to 3.67 people / 1 000 population, and the physicians demand to gradually increase at a growth rate in gradual slowdown.Conclusions:This research used the unequal weight combination forecast model, based on the service demand and the historical situation. It is suggested that relevant policies of medical education and specialists division be made based on both the demand and the factors affecting the supply and demand balance of physicians.