Trends in incidence of thyroid cancer in Fuling District from 2016 to 2020 / 预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective@#To analyze the trends in incidence of thyroid cancer in Fuling District, Chongqing Municipality from 2016 to 2020 and predict the incidence of thyroid cancer from 2021 to 2023, so as to provide insights into thyroid cancer control.@*Methods@#The data pertaining to incidence of thyroid cancer in Fuling District from 2016 to 2020 were collected through National Central Cancer Registry of China. The crude incidence rate ( CR ) of thyroid cancer, the standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer by Chinese standard population ( ASR China ) and by world standard population ( ASR world ) were calculated. The trend in thyroid cancer incidence was analyzed using annual percent change ( APC ). The GM ( 1, 1 ) grey model was created to predict the crude incidence of thyroid cancer in Fuling District from 2021 to 2023, and the fitting effect and predictive accuracy of the model were evaluated using posterior error ratio ( C ), small probability error ( p ) and mean absolute percent error ( MAPE ).@*Result@#A total of 686 new cases of thyroid cancer were reported in Fuling District from 2016 to 2020, with CR of 11.84/105, ASR China of 11.93/105 and ASR world of 10.02/105. Among the 686 new cases of thyroid cancer, there were 165 male cases, with CR of 5.69/105, ASR China of 5.66/105 and ASR world of 4.81/105, and 521 female cases, with CR of 18.02/105, ASR China of 18.17/105 and ASR world of 15.24/105. The CR appeared a tendency towards a rise among the whole population and women in Fuling District from 2016 to 2021, with APC values of 38.40% ( t=3.369, P=0.043 ) and 38.68% ( t=4.035, P=0.027 ). The incidence of thyroid cancer peaked among patients at ages of 25 to 34 years and 50 to 54 years, with CR of 22.82/105 and 39.06/105, respectively. The GM ( 1, 1 ) grey model was qualified to fit the incidence of thyroid cancer among the whole population ( C=0.56, p=0.75 ) and women ( C=0.53, p=1.00 ). In addition, the CR of thyroid cancer was predicted to be 19.48/105, 22.51/105 and 26.03/105 ( MAPE=9.93% ) among the whole population, and 31.43/105, 37.37/105 and 44.46/105 ( MAPE=11.30% ) among women, respectively.@*Conclusions@#The incidence of thyroid cancer appeared a tendency towards a rise in Fuling District from 2016 to 2021, and is projected to increase among the whole population and women from 2021 to 2023. Women and the elderly are at high risk of thyroid cancer.