Spatio-temporal Distribution of Suicide Risk in Iran: A Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Repeated Cross-sectional Data / 예방의학회지
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
;
: 164-172, 2022.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-926172
ABSTRACT
Objectives@#We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. @*Methods@#In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. @*Results@#The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran’s provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran’s provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. @*Conclusions@#The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran’s northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Etiology study
/
Observational study
/
Prevalence study
/
Risk factors
Language:
English
Journal:
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
Year:
2022
Type:
Article
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