Application value of three risk assessment models of venous thromboembolism in hospitalized stroke patients / 中国医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To compare the value of Caprini, Padua and Autar risk assessment models in the risk assessment of venous thromboembolism in hospitalized stroke patients.Methods:A retrospective case-control study were used to collect hospitalized stroke patients in the neurology department of Xiangya Hospital from January 1, 2018 to June 30, 2020. 75 patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) were VTE group and 75 patients without VTE were control group. The risk of thrombosis was assessed by Caprini risk assessment model, Padua risk assessment model and Autar risk assessment model respectively. The predictive value of each model on the risk of VTE formation in stroke patients was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC).Results:The areas under the curve of Caprini, Padua and Autar risk assessment models for predicting the risk of VTE formation in stroke patients were 0.768±0.039, 0.746±0.040 and 0.710±0.042 respectively. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were 81.3%, 61.3%, 71.3%(Caprini), 72.0%, 72.0%, 72.0%(Padua), 66.7%, 68.0% and 67.3%(Autar) respectively. There was no significant difference in the prediction value of the three models on the formation risk of stroke VTE (all P>0.05). The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was used to comprehensively evaluate the AUC, sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the three risk assessment models. Padua risk assessment model was the best, followed by Caprini risk assessment model and Autar risk assessment model. Conclusions:The Caprini, Padua, and Autar risk assessment scales can well predict the risk of VTE in stroke patients. The Caprini scale has the highest sensitivity and the Padua scale has the highest specificity. There is no significant difference in the predictive value of the three scales. Comprehensive evaluation of predictive value Padua risk assessment scale is the best.