Risk factors of long-term mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of echocardiography / 中华全科医师杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors of long-term mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE) and to explore the predictive value of echocardiography.Methods:A total of 109 APE patients admitted in First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University between December 2010 and November 2014 were enrolled in this study. APE was diagnosed by computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) or ventilation-perfusion pulmonary scintigraphy. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) parameters and clinical parameters within 48 h of onset were collected. All the patients were treated with standard anticoagulation, thrombolysis, or thrombectomy. Regular follow-up was carried out, with the average follow-up period of (7.20±1.04) years. The patients were divided into survival group and fatal group according to their follow-up results. The echocardiographic parameters and primary biochemical laboratory parameters within 48 h after onset were compared between the survival group and the fatal group by t test or χ 2 test. Cox regression analysis was conducted to analyze the influencing factors of long-term prognosis of patients with APE. Survival analysis was performed in patients with echocardiographic assessment of right ventricular (RV) enlargement and/or dysfunction and without RV enlargement and/or dysfunction by Kaplan-Meier method, and the survival curves were plotted. The comparison between the two groups was performed by log-rank test. Results:The average follow-up period was (7.20±1.04) years. Fourteen patients were lost in the follow-up, and 95 patients were included in the final analysis, among whom 58 survived and 37 died with a fatality rate of 39.0%. Cox regression analysis showed that age ( HR=2.32, 95% CI1.31-4.13, P=0.004), malignancy ( HR=6.49, 95% CI2.32-18.14, P<0.001), right atrial (RA)/left atrial (LA) area ratio ( HR=2.01, 95% CI1.16-3.48, P=0.013), RV enlargement and/or dysfunction ( HR=5.90, 95% CI 1.45-23.94, P=0.013), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) score ( HR=1.75, 95% CI 1.04-2.96, P=0.035), low oxygen saturation ( HR=1.70, 95% CI1.14-2.53, P=0.009) were independent risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with APE. Kaplan Meier survival curve analysis showed that the cumulative survival rates of patients with RV enlargement and/or dysfunction at 1, 3, 5 and 7 years were 92.8%, 66.7%, 59.4% and 52.2% respectively, and those without RV enlargement and/or dysfunction were 96.2%, 92.3%, 84.6% and 84.6%,respectively (log rank test, P=0.006). Conclusions:Patients with APE have high long-term mortality. Early echocardiographic RV enlargement and/or dysfunction, RA/LA area ratio, age, malignant tumor, CCI score and low oxygen saturation are independent risk factors related to long-term mortality in patients with APE. Ultrasound evaluation of patients with RV enlargement and/or dysfunction has a certain value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.