Trend analysis of diabetes deaths and prediction of life expectancy without causes in Qidong City in 1990-2019 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To study and analyze the trend of diabetes death and the impact of life expectancy in Qidong City, Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a basis for formulating health policies. Methods Based on the surveillance data of deaths from all causes in Qidong City and the population data over the years from 1990 to 2019, the residents' diabetes mortality and temporal trends were analyzed. Joinpoint4.7.0.0 software was used to calculate relevant indicators including crude mortality (CR), age-standardized rates by China population (CASR), annual percentage change (APC), potential years of life lost (PYLL), and potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR). Results The CR of diabetes in Qidong City from 1990 to 2019 was 15.12/100 000, with a rate of 12.72/100 000 in males and a rate of 17.45/100 000 in females. The total CASR was 7.58/100 000, including 6.47/100 000 for males and 8.59/100 000 for females. Trend analysis showed that the APC of CR and CASR was 9.31% and 5.26% in males, and 8.12% and 4.40% in females, respectively. The APC of CR and CASR in the 45-64 years old group was 2.59% and 4.85%, respectively. The APC of CR and CASR in the 65 years old and above group was 7.20% and 9.79%, respectively. There were statistically significant differences except for the 15-44 years old group. The life expectancy of residents in Qidong City rose from 73.95 years in 1990 to 82.91 years in 2019 (APC=0.38, P<0.001), and life expectancy without diabetes rose from 74.01 years in 1990 to 83.39 years in 2019 (APC=0.39, P<0.001). Conclusion In the past 30 years, the diabetes mortality and life loss of residents in Qidong City have been increasing year by year and the trend is obvious. Women's diabetes mortality and life loss are higher than those in men. The level and increase rate of diabetes mortality in the high age group are higher than those in the low age group. It is necessary to carry out key intervention for the corresponding population.