Correlation between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors in Zigong area in 2016-2021 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To explore the correlation between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors in Zigong area from 2016 to 2021. Methods All acute upper respiratory tract infection cases from the Emergency Department of the First People's Hospital of Zigong City from 2016 to 2021 and meteorological data (including but not limited to temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, sunshine time, wind speed, etc.) during the same period were collected. Cases were screened from emergency electronic data, and medical records that met the criteria were included in this study to analyze the relationship between acute upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors. Results A total of 5 608 patients were enrolled in this study, including 3,893 males (69.42%) and 1,715 females (30.58%), with an average age of 50.17±9.81 years. The predisposing factors were climate change in 2331 cases (41.57%), history of chronic respiratory diseases in 1458 cases (26.00%), low immune function in the elderly or young children in 1106 cases (19.72%), vitamin deficiency in 512 cases (9.13%), and others in 201 cases (3.58%). Acute upper respiratory infections in Zigong area occurred all year round. Spring had more respiratory infections than other seasons, and the season with the fewest infections was autumn. Among them, May had the highest number of cases (650 cases), followed by January (592 cases). September had the least number of cases (475 cases), followed by August (480 cases). The daily incidence of upper respiratory tract infection in this area was negatively correlated with daily average temperature, sunshine duration and daily precipitation (rdaily average temperature=-0.635, Pdaily average temperature=0.027; rsunshine duration=-0.678, Psunshine duration=0.015; rday precipitation=-0.691, pday precipitation=0.013), and positively correlated with the daily temperature range and 24 hrs pressure change (rtemperature daily range=0.644, Ptemperature daily range=0.024; r24hrs change pressure=0.579, P24hrs change pressure=0.049). AURI-induced complications were negatively correlated with daily average temperature (rdaily average temperature=-0.718, P daily average temperature=0.009), and positively correlated with daily temperature range (rtemperature daily range=0.651, Ptemperature daily range=0.022). The analysis of multi-factor regression integration showed that the consistency of the test results exceeded 70%, and it exceeded 85% at the same level or adjacent levels. Conclusion From 2016 to 2021, acute upper respiratory tract infection occurs throughout the year in Zigong, with the most in spring and the least in autumn. May and September are the two months with the highest and lowest number of cases, respectively. The number of cases is affected by the average daily temperature, sunshine duration, daily precipitation, daily temperature range and 24hrs variable pressure. The establishment of a respiratory medical weather forecast model by season has a strong forecasting ability for the number of acute upper respiratory infections.