Development and evaluation of a predictive nomogram for survival in heat stroke patients: a retrospective cohort study / 世界急诊医学杂志(英文)
World Journal of Emergency Medicine
;
(4): 355-360, 2022.
Article
in English
| WPRIM
| ID: wpr-936999
ABSTRACT
@#BACKGROUND:
This study aimed to establish an effective nomogram to predict the survival of heat stroke (HS) based on risk factors.METHODS:
This was a retrospective, observational multicenter cohort study. We analyzed patients diagnosed with HS, who were treated between May 1 and September 30, 2018 at 15 tertiary hospitals from 11 cities in Northern China.RESULTS:
Among the 175 patients, 32 patients (18.29%) died before hospital discharge. After the univariate analysis, mechanical ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg, maximum heart rate, lab results on day 1 (white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase, creatinine), and Glasgow admission prediction score were included in multivariate analysis. Multivariate Cox regression showed that invasive ventilation, initial mean arterial pressure <70 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa), and Glasgow admission prediction score were independent risk factors for HS. The nomogram was established for predicting 7-d and 14-d survival in the training cohort. The nomogram exhibited a concordance index (C-index) of 0.880 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.831-0.930) by bootstrapping validation (B=1,000). Furthermore, the nomogram performed better when predicting 14-d survival, compared to 7-d survival. The prognostic index cut-off value was set at 2.085, according to the operating characteristic curve for overall survival prediction. The model showed good calibration ability in the internal and external validation datasets.CONCLUSION:
A novel nomogram, integrated with prognostic factors, was proposed; it was highly predictive of the survival in HS patients.
Full text:
Available
Index:
WPRIM (Western Pacific)
Type of study:
Controlled clinical trial
/
Etiology study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Risk factors
Language:
English
Journal:
World Journal of Emergency Medicine
Year:
2022
Type:
Article
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