Influencing Factors of Intestinal Metaplasia or Atypical Hyperplasia in Chronic Atrophic Gastritis Patients and Prediction Model Establishment / 中国实验方剂学杂志

ABSTRACT

ObjectiveTo investigate the influencing factors of intestinal metaplasia or atypical hyperplasia in chronic atrophic gastritis （CAG） patients and establish a prediction model. MethodThe clinical records and laboratory examination data of 335 CAG patients treated in the department of gastroenterology of the Second Affiliated Hospital of the Anhui University of Chinese Medicine from June 2016 to June 2021 were collected. Single and multiple Logistic regression analyses were used to explore the influencing factors of intestinal metaplasia or atypical hyperplasia in CAG patients by SPSS 26.0. A prediction model was constructed based on the data of the related influencing factors. In addition, 115 CAG patients diagnosed in the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from June 2019 to June 2021 were selected as external validation samples to verify and evaluate the prediction efficiency of the constructed prediction model. ResultMultiple Logistic regression analysis showed that pepsinogen Ⅰ［odds ratio（OR） 0.994，95% confidence interval（CI） （0.990，0.999），P<0.05］，the number of focus［OR 6.765，95% CI（3.831，11.945），P<0.01］， and Helicobacter pylori （Hp） infection［OR 0.546，95% CI（0.335，0.888），P<0.05］ were independent risk factors for intestinal metaplasia or atypical hyperplasia in CAG patients（P<0.05）. The formula of the prediction model is as follows：P=-1.558+0.606×Hp infection-0.006×pepsinogen Ⅰ+1.912×the number of focus. The receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve showed the specific parameters as below： the area under the ROC curve of 0.76，the Youden index of 0.443，the best cut-off value of 0.52，sensitivity of 0.533，and specificity of 0.910. The prediction model was applied to the data of patients in the validation group for validation，and the predictive efficiency of the model was tested by decision curve analysis （DCA）. The results showed that the model had a good fit and high predictive value. ConclusionPepsinogen Ⅰ，the number of focus， and Hp infection are independent risk factors for intestinal metaplasia or atypical hyperplasia in CAG patients. The prediction model constructed based on these factors has a good fit and high predictive value，which can provide references for the classification of CAG patients and the formulation of individual treatment protocols.