Long short-term memory and Logistic regression for mortality risk prediction of intensive care unit patients with stroke / 北京大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To select variables related to mortality risk of stroke patients in intensive care unit (ICU) through long short-term memory (LSTM) with attention mechanisms and Logistic regression with L1 norm, and to construct mortality risk prediction model based on conventional Logistic regression with important variables selected from the two models and to evaluate the model performance.@*METHODS@#Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-Ⅳ database was retrospectively analyzed and the patients who were primarily diagnosed with stroke were selected as study population. The outcome was defined as whether the patient died in hospital after admission. Candidate predictors included demogra-phic information, complications, laboratory tests and vital signs in the initial 48 h after ICU admission. The data were randomly divided into a training set and a test set for ten times at a ratio of 8 ∶2. In training sets, LSTM with attention mechanisms and Logistic regression with L1 norm were constructed to select important variables. In the test sets, the mean importance of variables of ten times was used as a reference to pick out the top 10 variables in each of the two models, and then these variables were included in conventional Logistic regression to build the final prediction model. Model evaluation was based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. And the model performance was compared with the forward Logistic regression model which hadn't conducted variable selection previously.@*RESULTS@#A total of 2 755 patients with 2 979 ICU admission records were included in the analysis, of which 526 recorded deaths. The AUC of Logistic regression model with L1 norm was statistically better than that of LSTM with attention mechanisms (0.819±0.031 vs. 0.760±0.018, P < 0.001). Age, blood glucose, and blood urea nitrogen were at the top ten important variables in both of the two models. AUC, sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of Logistic regression models were 0.85, 85.98%, 71.74% and 74.26%, respectively. And the final prediction model was superior to forward Logistic regression model.@*CONCLUSION@#The variables selected by Logistic regression with L1 norm and LSTM with attention mechanisms had good prediction performance, which showed important implications on the mortality prediction of stroke patients in ICU.