Value of external validation of REAL-B score in predicting the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients treated by antiviral therapy / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of the hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk model REAL-B score in predicting the risk of HCC in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving antiviral therapy in comparison with mPAGE-B, aMAP and PAGE-B scores. Methods A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 1160 CHB patients who received entecavir or tenofovir treatment for more than 1 year from January 2013 to December 2015 in Tianjin Second Peolple's Hospital, and the events of HCC were recorded. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the value of REAL-B, mPAGE-B, aMAP, and PAGE-B scores in predicting HCC. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the cumulative incidence rate of HCC at different time points, and the log-rank test was used to compare the incidence rate of HCC between the groups with different scores. The independent samples t -test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. Results Among the 1160 CHB patients, 108 (9.8%) progressed to HCC within a median follow-up time of 5.3 (5.0-6.3) years. REAL-B score had an AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [ CI ] 0.816-0.880) in predicting the onset of HCC within 5 years, followed by aMAP score (AUC=0.823, 95% CI 0.786-0.860), mPAGE-B score (AUC=0.822, 95% CI 0.788-0.857), and PAGE-B scores (AUC=0.780, 95% CI 0.736-0.824). The 5-year cumulative incidence rate of HCC was 0.8% in the low-risk group (with a REAL-B score of 0-3 points), which was significantly lower than the incidence rate of 11.8% in the medium-risk group (with a REAL-B score of 4-7 points) and 35.6% with the high-risk group (with a REAL-B score of 8-13 points) ( P < 0.05). In the low-risk group, REAL-B score had a negative predictive value of 100% and 99.67%, respectively, in predicting HCC within 3 and 5 years. Conclusion REAL-B score accurately predicts the risk of HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy, with a better predictive value than the other risk models within 3 years of antiviral therapy.