Value of interleukin-6 combined with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in predicting the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To investigate the value of interleukin-6 (IL-6) combined with Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in predicting the prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). Methods A total of 86 patients with HBV-ACLF who were hospitalized in The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2015 to December 2018 were enrolled, and according to their survival status after follow-up for 90 days, they were divided into death group with 50 patients and survival group with 36 patients. ELISA was used to measure the serum level of IL-6, and a statistical analysis was performed for general information. The t -test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups, and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distributed continuous data between two groups; the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. A Pearson correlation analysis was performed for IL-6 and other variables; a binary logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the independent risk factors for the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the value of IL-6 combined with MELD score in predicting the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. Results There were significant differences between the death group and the survival group in hematocrit ( t =2.413), platelet count ( t =6.584), total bilirubin (TBil) ( t =-8.070), prothrombin time (PT) ( U =77.500), international standardized ratio ( U =102.000), HBV DNA ( t =-2.767), IL-6 ( t =-16.543), and MELD score ( t =-8.192), and the death group had a significantly higher level of IL-6 than the survival group (27.13±12.18 pg/mL vs 9.72±5.56 pg/mL, P < 0.001). The Pearson correlation analysis showed that IL-6 was positively correlated with TBil and PT ( r =0.579 and 0.681, both P < 0.001). The binary logistic regression analysis showed that IL-6 (odds ratio[ OR ]=1.480, 95% confidence interval [ CI ] 1.196~1.833, P =0.007) and MELD score ( OR =1.128, 95% CI 1.033~1.231, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for the death of HBV-ACLF patients within 90 days. IL-6 combined with MELD score had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.891 (95% CI 0.778~0.999), with a higher AUC than IL-6 (AUC=0.838, 95% CI 0.687~0.989) or MELD score (AUC=0.783, 95% CI 0.634~0.933). IL-6 combined with MELD score had a significantly higher value than IL-6 alone in predicting the prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF ( Z =-2.257, P =0.024). Conclusion IL-6 combined with MELD score can be used as a good model for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.