Analysis of the development trend and severity of the COVID-19 panidemic in the global world / 北京大学学报(医学版)

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE@#To analyze the recent severity of COVID-19 in various countries.@*METHODS@#Data were ollected on the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in various countries as of January 16, 2021, and the scale and overall trend of the epidemic were retrospectively described; combined with the recent trend of newly confirmed cases, from January 10 to 16 (the 54th week) and the newly confirmed cases indexes, such as the number and incidence density the severity of the epidemic was classified. Feasible suggestions were put forward based on the variation of the virus, actual data of vaccine research and development and possible existence in many countries.@*RESULTS@#Up to January 16, 2021, there were 92 510 419 confirmed cases worldwide; 4 849 301 new confirmed cases were confirmed in the 54th week, and they were still growing. Among all the continents, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Europe, North America, and Asia has exceeded 21 million, and the number of new confirmed cases in a single week in North America, South America and Asia were all increasing. Among the countries, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in 18 countries including the United States, India, and Brazil was more than 1 million, accounting for 77.04% of the total number of cumulative confirmed cases in the world. Eleven countries including the United States, Brazil, France, Spain, Colombia, The United Kingdom, Russia, Germany, South Africa, Italy, and India are at higher risk of the epidemic; The United States, Brazil, France, Spain, and Colombia were still experiencing new confirmed cases and increasing status, the risk of the epidemic was greater. Novel coronavirus mutates frequently, up to February 2021, there had been 3 931 mutant genotypes in the world. At the same time, a total of 11 vaccines were successfully launched, however we were still facing some troubles, such as the global shortage of vaccines, the public's willingness to vaccinate needed to be improved, and equity in the distribution of vaccines.@*CONCLUSION@#The global epidemic situation is still getting worse, with repeated epidemics in all the continents and countries, and has not been fundamentally controlled. At the continent level, North America, South America, and Europe have the most severe epidemics; at the national level, The United States, Brazil, France, Spain, Colombia and other countries have higher epidemic risks. Focusing on the severely affected countries will help bring the global epidemic under control as soon as possible. Under the premise of ensuring the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines, it is a key and feasible direction to improve the yield and vaccination rate of the vaccines, shorten the onset time of the vaccines and prolong the immune persistence.