Preliminary establishment and evaluation of a model for early diagnosis of acute aortic dissection / 中国综合临床

ABSTRACT

Objective:An early diagnosis model of acute aortic dissection (AAD) was established based on chest pain center database.Methods:The clinical data of patients who attended Chest Pain Center of Department of Emergency in Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University of Shandong Province from January 2020 to December 2020 were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into AAD and non-AAD groups according to whether or not AAD was diagnosed. The clinical related indicators of the two groups were compared. The research indicators with statistical differences between the two groups were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and the early diagnosis of AAD nomogram model was established. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the model was used to evaluate the prediction accuracy, and the Homser-Lemeshow statistics were used to test the goodness of fit for the model. A total of 630 patients with chest pain who visited the hospital from January 2021 to March 2021 were also collected for external validation of the model. The t-test of independent samples was used to compare the measurement data of normal distribution, nonparametric test was used to compare the measurement data of skewness distribution, and χ 2 test was used to compare the counting data between groups. Results:A total of 2 738 patients were included, of which 4.09% (112/2 738) were AAD patients. Univariate analysis showed that in AAD group, male morbidity (74.11%(83/112)), hypertension history (70.54%(79/112)), aortic disease history (10.71%(12/112)), family history of aortic disease (4.46%(5/112)), sudden onset of symptoms (76.79%(86/112)), percentage of patients with laceration pain (38.39%(43/112)), patients with back pain (66.07%(74/112)), patients with abdominal pain (16.96%(19/112)), systolic blood pressure ((159.44±30.94) mmHg), bilateral blood pressure/pulse asymmetry (23.21% (26/112)), incidence of complicated neurological signs (7.14%(8/112)) and D-dimer (3.57(2.10, 6.62) mg/L) were significantly higher than those in non-AAD group (59.56%(1 564/2 626), 46.23%(1 214/2 626), 0.23%(6/2 626), 0.08%(2/2 626), 35.99%(945/2 626), 0.08%(2/2 626), 3.08%(81/2 626), 3.81%(100/2 626), (142.46±27.90) mmHg, 0.15%(4/2 626), 0.27%(7/2 626), 0.31(0.20, 0.50) mg/L). Age ((57.95±14.35) years old) and CK-MB (1.50(0.90, 3.25) μg/L) were significantly lower than those in the non-AAD group ((61.94±15.77) years, 2.50(1.24, 4.81) μg/L). The differences were statistically significant (the statistical values were χ 2=9.47, χ 2=25.46, χ 2=180.80, χ 2=81.11, χ 2=76.17, χ 2=975.60, χ 2=798.00, χ 2=44.72, t=6.28, χ 2=527.20, χ 2=93.22, Z=14.09, t=2.61, and Z=3.51, respectively; P values were 0.002, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, 0.009, and <0.001, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that history of hypertension ( OR=3.088, 95% CI1.294-7.374), history of aortic disease ( OR=20.771, 95% CI2.132-202.361), family history of aortic disease ( OR=266.425, 95% CI17.610-4 030.851), sudden onset of symptoms ( OR=3.538, 95% CI1.643-7.619), laceration pain ( OR=1 771.971, 95% CI204.048-15 387.935), back pain ( OR=61.550,95% CI27.987-135.367), abdominal pain ( OR=12.325, 95% CI4.201-36.161), systolic blood pressure ( OR=1.026, 95% CI1.013-1.039), bilateral blood pressure/pulse asymmetry ( OR=338.357, 95% CI60.704-1 885.949) and D-dimer ( OR=1.241, 95% CI1.176-1.309) were independent factors for the diagnosis of AAD in patients with chest pain (P values were 0.011, 0.009, <0.001, 0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, <0.001, and <0.001, respectively). Furthermore, the nomogram model was constructed. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.976 ( P<0.01), the specificity was 94.52%, and the sensitivity was 91.96%. The statistics of Homser-lemeshow was used to test the goodness of fit, which shows that the model can be fitted well (χ 2=2.928, P=0.939). The prediction model was verified by external validation data, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.934 ( P<0.01), indicating that the model had good prediction performance. Conclusions:History of hypertension, history of aortic disease, family history of aortic disease, sudden onset of symptoms, laceration pain, back pain, abdominal pain, systolic blood pressure, bilateral blood pressure/pulse asymmetry and D-dimer were independent factors for the diagnosis of AAD in patients with acute chest pain. The AAD early diagnosis nomogram model based on the above factors has good predictive performance.