Influence of resting heart rate and erythrocyte volume fraction cardiovascular events in elderly patients with preserved or mid-range ejection fraction heart failure during the vulnerable phase / 中华老年医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the influencing factors for major adverse cardiovascular events(MACE)in older patients with preserved ejection fraction(HFpEF)or with mid-range ejection fraction(HFmrEF)heart failure in the vulnerable phase.Methods:Data for 312 patients with preserved or mid-range ejection fraction heart failure hospitalized at the Department of Geriatrics, General Hospital of Tianjin Medical University from January 2017 to October 2019 were retrospectively collected, and 17 patients were lost to follow-up.A total of 295 elderly patients with preserved or mid-range ejection fraction heart failure were included in this study.According to whether major cardiovascular events occurred in the vulnerable phase(90 d after discharge), patients were divided into a MACE group(n=87)and anon-MACE group(n=208). Baseline data between the two groups were compared.Univariate logistic regression analysis wasused to determine risk factors for patients in the vulnerable phase, and COX regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were conducted to evaluate the influence of resting heart rate and hematocrit on MACE in the vulnerable phase.The predictive value of resting heart rate and hematocrit in MACE was analyzed by the ROC curve.Results:The resting heart rate at discharge in the MACE group was(78.6±6.9)bpm, higher than(71.1±8.4)bpm in the non-MACE group( t=7.30, P<0.01), whereas hematocrit was(32.3±3.6)%in the MACE group, lower than(36.6±4.9)% in the non-MACE group( t=-8.22, P<0.01). Resting heart rate and hematocrit were risk factors for MACE in elderly patients with HFpEF or HFmrEF in the vulnerable phase.Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that HR was 1.11 for resting heart rate(95% CI 1.07-1.14, P<0.001)and 0.91 for hematocrit(95% CI 0.83-0.99, P=0.034). The survival times of patients with low and high resting heart rate were(86.5±1.2)d and(57.9±3.2)d, respectively.The survival rate of the high resting heart rate group(87.3%, 89/102)was lower than that of the low resting heart rate group(98.4%, 190/193)( χ2=116.30, P<0.01). The survival times of patients with high and low hematocrit values were(84.6±1.7)d and(67.0±2.4)d, respectively.The survival rate of the low hematocrit group(91.9%, 148/161)was lower than that of the high hematocrit group(97.8%, 131/134)( χ2=40.32, P<0.01). ROC curve analysis revealed that the cut-off values for resting heart rate and hematocrit were 73.5 bpm and 35.4%, respectively.The area under the ROC curve(0.919, 95% CI 0.882-0.947, P<0.05)for the diagnosis of MACE using the combination of both parameters was significantly larger than that using resting heart rate(0.885, 95% CI 0.843-0.919, P<0.05)or hematocrit(0.747, 95% CI 0.694-0.796, P<0.05)alone. Conclusions:Resting heart rate and hematocrit are the main influencing factors for MACE in elderly patients with HFpEF or HFmrEF in the vulnerable phase.