Time-series analysis on health effects of atmospheric ozone exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming during 2017—2019 / 环境与职业医学

ABSTRACT

Background Kunming is a plateau city with sufficient sunshine, high ultraviolet intensity, and strong radiation. In recent years, ozone (O3) pollution has gradually become the primary problem of air pollution in the city. Objective To evaluate the health effects of atmospheric O3 exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming. Methods The data of meteorological variables (average temperature, average relative humidity, average air pressure, and average wind speed), air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and O3) and non-accidental deaths (NAD) of residents were collected in Kunming from 2017 to 2019. A generalized additive model was adopted to conduct time-series analyses on the current-day (lag0), single-day (lag1-lag3), and cumulative lag (lag01-lag03) effects of O3 on NAD; furthermore, hierarchical analyses by gender, age, and season (warm and cold) were conducted. Results The average concentration of O3-8h from 2017 to 2019 was (84.3±32.3) μg·m−3. For every 10 μg·m−3 increase in O3-8h concentration, the NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 of total population increased by 0.70% (95%CI 0.11%-1.29%) 0.79% (95%CI 0.14%-1.44%), and 0.75% (95%CI 0.08%-1.43%), respectively; for women, the NAD risks of lag2 and lag02 increased by 0.80% (95%CI 0.08%-1.53%) and 1.05% (95%CI 0.09%-2.03%) respectively; for the residents over the age of 65, the associated NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 increased by 0.82% (95%CI 0.16%-1.48%), 0.93% (95%CI 0.20%-1.67%), and 0.96% (95%CI 0.20%-1.73%), respectively; in the warm season, the NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 increased by 0.91% (95%CI 0.12%-1.70%), 0.98% (95%CI 0.12%-1.86%), and 1.00% (95%CI 0.07%-1.93%), respectively; After introducing PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO to the model, the effects of O3 exposure level on resident’s NAD was not statistically significant. Conclusion An increase of O3 exposure level associates with an increase of NAD risk in residents, and there is a lag effect. Residents over the age of 65, women, and all residents in warm season may be more sensitive to O3 exposure.