Trends and prediction of the burden of depression among adolescents aged 10 to 24 years in China from 1990 to 2019 / 中国学校卫生

ABSTRACT

Methods@#To analyze the trend of the burden of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2019 and predict its future trend, so as to provide a theoretical basis for prevention and treatment.@*Methods@#The prevalence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were determined using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Database. The joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the changing trend of the burden of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 1990 to 2019. The ARIMA time series model was established using R software to predict the development trend of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China from 2020 to 2029.@*Results@#From 1990 to 2019, the prevalence and DALYs rate were higher among adolescents aged 10-24 years in comparison to the general population and males. Furthermore, the prevalence and DALYs rate were higher among adolescents aged 20-24 years than among those aged 15-19 and 10-14 years, with statistical significance ( P <0.05). The joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the prevalence of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years showed an overall decreasing trend with an average annual rate of 1.61% ( t =-10.53, P <0.05), while the prevalence of depression among male and female adolescents in the same age group also showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decreasing rate of 1.18% ( t =-5.79) and 1.79% ( t =-11.84) ( P <0.05), and the overall decline rate was greater among women than men. There was no significant change in the prevalence of depression among adolescents aged 10-14 years from 1990 to 2019 (AAPC=-0.28, P >0.05), while the prevalence of depression among adolescents aged 15-19 years and 20-24 years also showed a decreasing trend with an average annual rate of 1.43% ( t =-12.05) and 1.90% ( t =-24.92) ( P <0.05). The ARIMA model predicted that the prevalence of depression and the rate of DALYs among adolescents aged 10-24 years would continue to decline from 2020 to 2029.@*Conclusion@#The prevention and treatment of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in China should focus on females and those aged 20- 24 years old. We should start from the environment and micro-environment of adolescent growth and take active and effective measures to prevent the occurrence of adolescent depression.