Long-term trend analysis of liver cancer survival rate in Qidong region, Jiangsu Province, 1972-2019 / 中华肝脏病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the incidence and survival rate of liver cancer cases in the entire population in the Qidong region from 1972 to 2019, so as to provide a basis for prognosis evaluation, prevention, and treatment. Methods: The observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) of 34 805 cases of liver cancer in the entire Qidong region population from 1972 to 2019 were calculated using Hakulinen's method with SURV3.01 software. Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical analysis. Age-standardized relative survival (ARS) was calculated using the International Cancer Survival Standard. The Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the liver cancer survival rate. Results: 1-ASR increased from 13.80% in 1972-1977 to 50.20% in 2014-2019, while 5-ASR increased from 1.27% in 1972-1977 to 27.64% in 2014-2019. The upward trend of RSR over eight periods was statistically significant (χ (2) = 3045.29, P < 0.001). Among them, male 5-ASR was 0.90%, 1.80%, 2.33%, 4.92%, 5.43%, 7.05%, 10.78%, and 27.78%, and female 5-ASR was 2.33%, 1.51%, 3.35%, 3.92%, 3.84%, 7.18%, 11.45%, and 29.84%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR between males and females (χ (2) = 45.68, P < 0.001). The 5-RSR for each age group of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 4.92%, 5.29%, 8.17%, 11.70%, 11.63%, and 9.60%, respectively. There were statistically significant differences in RSR among different age groups (χ (2) = 501.29, P < 0.001). The AAPC in Qidong region from 1972 to 2019 for 1-ARS, 3-ASR, and 5-ARS were 5.26% (t = 12.35, P < 0.001), 8.10% (t = 15.99, P < 0.001), and 8.96 % (t = 16.06, P < 0.001), respectively. The upward trend was statistically significant in all cases. The AAPC of 5-ARS was 9.82% in males (t = 14.14, P < 0.001), and 8.79% in females (t = 11.48, P < 0.001), and the upward trend was statistically significant in both. The AAPC of 25-34 years old, 35-44 years old, 45-54 years old, 55-64 years old, 65-74 years old, and 75 years old were 5.37% (t = 5.26, P = 0.002), 5.22% (t = 5.66, P = 0.001), 7.20% (t = 6.88, P < 0.001), 10.00% (t = 12.58, P < 0.001), 9.96% (t = 7.34, P < 0.001) and 8.83% (t = 3.51, P = 0.013), and the upward trend was statistically significant. Conclusion: The overall survival rate of registered cases of liver cancer in the Qidong region's entire population has greatly improved, but there is still much room for improvement. Hence, constant attention should be paid to the study on preventing and treating liver cancer.