Death and prediction analysis of adult hematological malignancies in Shenzhen / 白血病·淋巴瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the characteristics of death, tendency and the prediction of Shenzhen residents with adult hematological malignancies from 2017 to 2020.Methods:The surveillance data of hematological malignancies from 2017 to 2020 and the demographic data in Shenzhen were collected from Shenzhen death cause monitoring system and Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, respectively. The data of the 7th national demographic data in 2020 were set as the standardized population data. Crude mortality rate (CMR), standardized mortality rate (SMR) and annual percentage change (APC) of mortality were calculated by using Joinpoint software. The grey model GM(1,1) was built to predict the mortality of adult hematological malignancies in Shenzhen between 2021 and 2025.Results:From 2017 to 2022, the male CMR of hematological malignancies was 1.15/100 000 to 1.85/100 000, and the SMR was 2.24/100 000 to 2.44/100 000; the female CMR of hematological malignancies was 0.81/100 000 to 1.75/100 000, and the SMR was 1.67/100 000 to 1.90/100 000. There were no statistically significant differences in the annual CMR and SMR between male and female hematological malignancies (all P > 0.05), and the annual change trend of CMR and SMR was not significant. The APC of male and female CMR was 27.28% and 12.70%, respectively (χ 2 = 0.01, P = 0.939); the APC of male and female SMR was 1.12% and 4.77%, respectively (χ 2 = 0.91, P = 0.318). The death causes of hematological malignancies were successively acute myeloid leukemia (AML), lymphoma, multiple myeloma, acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) plus chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), chronic lymphoblastic leukemia (CLL) plus chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). The CMR of patients with hematological malignancies aged 18-40 years was low, the CMR began to rise in patients above 40 years, especially the rapid increase at the age of 60 years, reaching the peak at the age of 80 years or above. The shortest median time of all kinds of hematological malignancies from the onset of disease to the death was found in AML group (8 months, range 0.1-168 months), the longest time was in CLL+CML group (24 months, range 0.1-300 months). Infection was the most direct cause of death, followed by single organ failure. GM(1,1) model had the better predictive effects and the total SMR would increase from 2021 to 2025 (4.52/100 000, 4.76/100 000, 5.01/100 000, 5.28/100 000 and 5.57/100 000, respectively). Conclusions:The incidence of hematological malignancies in Shenzhen residents over 40 years old is on the increase. The trend of adult hematological malignancies in Shenzhen will rise predicted by GM (1,1) grey model.