Monocytes to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio predicts the early neurological deterioration and outcome in patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (MHR) for the predictive value of early neurological deterioration (END) and poor outcome in patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke (AACIS).Methods:Patients with AACIS admitted to Henan Provincial People's Hospital from January 2021 to January 2022 were included retrospectively. END was defined as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score within 7 d of onset increase ≥2 compred with baseline or the increase of motor function score ≥1. The patients were divided into END group and non-END group according to the presence or absence of END. The patients were also divided into good outcome group (0-2 points) and poor outcome group (3-6 points) according to the modified Rankin Scale score 3 months after onset. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for END and poor outcome, and the predictive value of MHR for END and poor outcome was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 522 patients were enrolled, including 338 male (64.8%), aged 61.99±11.39 years old. One hundred and five patients (20.1%) had END, 123 (23.6%) had poor outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that baseline NIHSS score (odds ratio [ OR] 1.075, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.017-1.137; P=0.010) and MHR (with the lowest quartile as the reference, the third quartile OR 2.778, 95% CI 1.255-6.151, P=0.012; the fourth quartile OR 12.645, 95% CI 5.942-26.912; P<0.001) were the independent risk factors for END; the baseline NIHSS score ( OR 1.075, 95% CI 1.021-1.132; P=0.006), END ( OR 2.306, 95% CI 1.010-6.261; P=0.047) and MHR (with the first quartile as reference, the fourth quartile OR 2.769, 95% CI 1.167-6.569; P=0.021) were the independent risk factors for poor outcomes. ROC curve analysis showed that area under the curve of MHR for predicting END and poor outcome in patients with AACIS were 0.805 (95% CI 0.750-0.860; P<0.001) and 0.747 (95% CI 0.690-0.803; P<0.001) respectively. The best cutoff value was 0.435, the sensitivity was 73.3% and 64.2%, and the specificity was 79.6% and 78.7% respectively. The area under the curve of MHR for predicting END and poor outcome was higher than that of monocyte and HDL-C alone. Conclusion:MHR can be used as a predictor of END and poor outcome in patients with AACIS, and its predictive value is higher than that of monocytes or HDL-C.