Construction and study of nomograph model for prognosis of multiple trauma patients / 中华急诊医学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the prognostic risk factors of patients with multiple injuries and establish a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The clinical data of 291 patients with multiple injuries admitted to the Emergency Intensive Care Unit (EICU) of General Hospital of Ningxia Medical University were collected, including sex, age, open injury, norepinephrine use, mechanical ventilation, time to hospital after injury, distance to hospital, relative lymphocyte value, platelet count, lactic acid, injury severity score (ISS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluationⅡ (APACHE Ⅱ), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), number of blood transfusions, number of operations, and previous history of diabetes, hypertension and smoking within 24 h after admission. According to whether the condition worsened during the hospitalization of EICU, the patients were divided into the deterioration group and improvement group. SPSS26.0 software was used for statistical analysis of the data, univariate and multivariate analysis were used to screen the factors affecting the prognosis of patients with multiple injuries, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and forest chart were drawn, and the influencing factors in binary Logistic regression model were used to make the nomogram.Results:Mechanical ventilation, norepinephrine use, age, relative lymphocyte value, lactic acid, APACHE-II score, GCS score, and number of operations were significant for predicting the prognosis of patients with multiple injuries ( P<0.05). The independent influencing factors obtained by binary Logistic regression model were age, lactic acid, APACHE-Ⅱ score and number of operations. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was the largest in multi-factor combined prediction, followed by APACHE-Ⅱ score. The diagnostic cut-off value of each index was as follows age >58 years old, relative lymphocyte value≤ 8.62%, lactic acid >1.72, APACHE-Ⅱ score >16, GCS score≤ 6, and number of operations≤ 0. The R software was used to establish a nomogram of the influencing factors in the binary Logistic regression model, which had good predictive value. Conclusions:The nomogram constructed by age, relative lymphocyte value, lactic acid, APACHE-Ⅱ score, GCS score, number of operations, mechanical ventilation, and norepinephrine use has a good predictive value for the prognosis of patients with multiple injuries, and is worthy of promotion..