Clinical prediction model for complicated appendicitis in children under five years old / 中国小儿急救医学

ABSTRACT

Objective:To retrospectively analyze the independent risk factors of complicated appendicitis(CA)in children under five years old and establish a clinical prediction model, and to evaluate the clinical application of this model.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed on children under five years old who underwent appendectomy at Children′s Hospital of Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine from January 2018 to December 2021.The children were divided into CA group and uncomplicated appendicitis group according to whether there was sign of perforation or gangrene in appendiceal tissue after operation.The differences in clinical features and preoperative laboratory test results between two groups were compared.The independent risk factors of CA were identified and a clinical prediction model was established.The clinical prediction model was verified by receiver operating characteristic curve.Results:A total of 140 children were enrolled in this study, including 84 cases in the CA group and 56 cases in uncomplicated appendicitis group.Univariate and binary Logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of symptoms>23.5 h( OR=6.650, 95% CI 2.469-17.912, P<0.05), abdominal muscle tension( OR=3.082, 95% CI 1.190-7.979, P<0.05) and C-reactive protein>41 mg/L ( OR=3.287, 95% CI 1.274-8.480, P<0.05) were independent risk factors for CA( P<0.05). The clinical prediction model of CA was constructed by the above mentioned three independent risk factors.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the clinical prediction model was 0.881(95% CI 0.825-0.936), the sensitivity was 77.4%, the specificity was 87.5%, the positive predictive value was 91.3% and the negative predictive value was 70.0%. Conclusion:Acute appendicitis in children under five years old is more likely to progress to CA if the duration of symptoms>23.5 h, the level of C-reactive protein is increased, and the abdominal muscle tension is accompanied.The clinical prediction model of CA constructed by common clinical information in pediatric clinics has good prediction efficiency, which provides a simple and feasible reference method for clinicians to distinguish CA from uncomplicated appendicitis.