Risk factors of in-hospital death in severe pneumonia patients receiving enteral nutrition support / 中华临床营养杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:The decline in nutritional status in patients with severe pneumonia may contribute to an increase in in-hospital mortality. Enteral nutrition support can improve the nutritional status of patients, and is relatively easy to manage, with low cost and fewer serious complications. On the other hand, adverse reactions such as gastric retention and gastric microbiota translocation may increase the incidence of nosocomial pneumonia and increase the uncertainty of patient prognosis. There is no predictive model for in-hospital death in severe pneumonia patients receiving enteral nutrition support. The objective of this study was to investigate the risk factors of in-hospital death in patients with severe pneumonia receiving enteral nutrition support and to establish a prognostic model for such patients.Methods:This was a single-center retrospective study. Patients with severe pneumonia who were hospitalized in Peking Union Medical College Hospital and received enteral nutrition support were included from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality rate and unordered discharge rate. The independent risk factors were determined using univariate and multifactorial logistic regression analysis, the nomogram scoring model was constructed, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed.Results:A total of 632 severe pneumonia patients who received enteral nutrition support were included. Patients were divided into death and survival groups according to the presence or absence of in-hospital death, and 24 parameters were found with significant differences between groups. Nine parameters were independent predictors of mortality, namely the duration of ventilator use, the presence of malignant hyperplasia diseases, the maximal levels of platelet and prothrombin during hospitalization, and the nadir levels of alanine aminotransferase, serum albumin, sodium, potassium, and blood glucose. Based on these variables, a risk prediction scoring model was established (ROC = 0.782; 95% CI 0.744 to 0.819, concordance index 0.772). Calibration curves, DCA, and clinical impact curve were plotted to evaluate the goodness of function, accuracy, and applicability of the predictive nomogram, using the training and test sets. Conclusion:This study summarized the clinical characteristics of patients with severe pneumonia receiving enteral nutrition support and developed a scoring model to identify risk factors and establish prognostic models.