Trend analysis and prediction of accidental fall-related mortality among the elderly in China / 中华创伤杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To analyze the mortality of accidental falls among the elderly in China from 2004 to 2019 and predict the standardized mortality from 2020 to 2024, so as to provide scientific evidence for formulating strategies to prevent accidental falls among the elderly.Methods:The death data of accidental falls of the elderly in China from 2004 to 2019 were collected from the China Death Cause Monitoring Data Set, and the total number of deaths, mortality rate and standardized mortality rate in the elderly from 2004 to 2019 and those data among them of different genders, residences and age groups were calculated. Joinpoint 4.8.0.1 statistical software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) of standardized mortality. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) was used to predict the standardized mortality rate of accidental falls among the elderly in China from 2020 to 2024. Results:The number of deaths related to accidental falls among the elderly in China was increased from 2 908 in 2004 to 23 709 in 2019. The mortality rate was increased from 51.89/100 000 in 2004 to 67.74/100 000 in 2019. The standardized mortality rate of accidental falls showed an overall upward trend from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC=1.65, P>0.05), including an upward trend from 2004 to 2010 (APC=1.66, P>0.05), a downward trend from 2010 to 2013 (APC=-9.67, P>0.05), and another upward trend from 2013 to 2019 (APC=7.83, P<0.01). The number of death and mortality rate related to accidental falls in Chinese elderly males and females both showed upward trends from 2004 to 2019, and the standardized mortality rate also showed upward trends from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC males=2.19, AAPC females=0.29, all P>0.05). The standardized mortality rate in males was generally higher than that in females, with that of males showing an upward trend from 2013 to 2019 (APC=7.36, P<0.05) and that of female showing an upward trend from 2014 to2019 (APC=6.92, P>0.05). The number of deaths and mortality rate among the elderly living in rural and urban areas both showed upward trends from 2004 to 2019, and the standardized mortality rate also showed an upward trend from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC rural = 1.71, AAPC urban =1.00, all P>0.05). The standardized mortality rate among the elderly living in rural areas was generally higher than that in urban areas. The rural and urban elderly both showed upward trends from 2013 to 2019 (APC rural = 8.24, APC urban =6.11, all P<0.05). The number of death and mortality rate of different age groups all showed upward trends from 2004 to 2019. The standardized mortality rates of the elderly aged 65-74 years and ≥85 years also showed upward trends from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC 65-74 years=0.38, AAPC ≥ 85 years=4.09, all P>0.05). The standardized mortality rate of the elderly aged 75-84 years showed a downward trend from 2004 to 2019 (AAPC=-0.10, P>0.05), and that of the elderly aged 65-74 years showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2019 (APC=5.35, P<0.05). The standardized mortality rate of the elderly aged 75-84 years and ≥85 years showed upward trends from 2013 to 2019 (APC 75-84 years=6.49, APC ≥ 85 years=10.47, all P<0.05). The ARIMA prediction results showed that the overall standardized mortality rates of accidental falls in the elderly in China from 2020 to 2024 were 69.11/100 000, 72.33/100 000, 74.41/100 000, 76.34/100 000, and 76.48/100 000, respectively, showing a slow upward trend. Conclusions:The accidental fall-related mortality among the elderly in China showed an overall upward trend from 2004 to 2019, and the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 also shows an upward trend. The elderly who are male in gender, live in rural areas, or at age of ≥85 years are the key population for prevention and control of accidental fall. Active and effective measures should be taken to reduce accidental falls in the elderly so as to contribute to active and healthy aging.