Prognostic value of pre-treatment prognostic nutrition index in patients with cervical and thoracic upper esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and radiation induced esophagitis / 中华放射肿瘤学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the prognostic value of Onodera's prognostic nutrition index (PNI) before treatment in patients with cervical and upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (CUTESCC) undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) and its predictive value in the occurrence of ≥ grade 2 radiation esophagitis (RE).Methods:The data of 163 CUTESCC patients eligible for inclusion criteria admitted to the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University from January 2012 to December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the best cut-off value of PNI for predicting the prognosis of patients. The prognosis of patients was analyzed by univariate and Cox multivariate analyses. Logistics binary regression model was adopted to analyze the risk factors of ≥ grade 2 RE in univariate and multivariate analyses. The significant factors in logistic multivariate analysis were used to construct nomogram for predicting ≥ grade 2 RE.Results:The optimal cut-off value of PNI was 48.57 [area under the curve (AUC) 0.653, P<0.001]. The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were 26.1 and 19.4 months, respectively. The OS ( χ2=6.900, P=0.009) and PFS ( χ2=9.902, P=0.003) of patients in the PNI ≥ 48.57 group ( n=47) were significantly better than those in the PNI < 48.57 group ( n=116). Cox multivariate analysis showed that cTNM stage and PNI were the independent predictors of OS ( HR=1.513, 95% CI 1.193-1.920, P=0.001; HR=1.807, 95% CI 1.164-2.807, P=0.008) and PFS ( HR=1.595, 95% CI 1.247-2.039, P<0.001; HR=2.260, 95% CI 1.439-3.550, P<0.001). Short-term efficacy was another independent index affecting PFS ( HR=2.072, 95% CI 1.072-4.003, P=0.030). Logistic multivariate analysis showed that the maximum transverse diameter of the lesion ( OR=3.026, 95% CI 1.266-7.229, P=0.013), gross tumor volume (GTV) ( OR=3.456, 95% CI 1.373-8.699, P=0.008), prescription dose ( OR=3.124, 95% CI 1.346-7.246, P=0.009) and PNI ( OR=2.072, 95% CI 1.072-4.003, P=0.030) were the independent factors affecting the occurrence of ≥ grade 2 RE. These four indicators were included in the nomogram model, and ROC curve analysis showed that the model could properly predict the occurrence of ≥ grade 2 RE (AUC=0.686, 95% CI 0.585-0.787). The calibration curve indicated that the actually observed values were in good agreement with the predicted RE. Decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated satisfactory nomogram positive net returns in most threshold probabilities. Conclusions:PNI before treatment is an independent prognostic factor for patients with CUTESCC who received definitive chemoradiotherapy. The maximum transverse diameter of the lesion, GTV, prescription dose and PNI are the risk factors for ≥ grade 2 RE in this cohort. Establishing a prediction model including these factors has greater predictive value.