Prognostic factors of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the bile duct: analysis based on SEER database / 中华肝胆外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore prognostic factors of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the bile duct (IPMN-B) patients.Methods:Clinical data on 227 patients with IPMN-B between 2004 and 2015 were retrospectively collected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. There were 126 male and 101 female patients with the age at diagnosis of 69(58, 77) years old. IPMN-B patients were divided into two groups based on whether surgical treatment was performed. There were 129 patients in the surgery group and 98 patients in the non-surgery group. The survival analyses were assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses and log-rank test was used to compared survival rate. The univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were applied to find independent prognostic factors of the survival in IPMN-B patients.Results:The tumor size of 227 IPMN-B patients from the SEER database was 25(18.5, 45.0) mm. The differences of tumor size, grade of defferentiation, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, T stage, M stage chemotherapy were statistically significant respectively in surgery group and non-surgery group (all P<0.05). The median overall survival time (OS) of patients with IPMN-B was 14 months and the overall 1-year survival was 53.4%. The median overall survival time of IPMN-B patients in surgery group was 27 months, which was better than 5 months of patients in non-surgery group, and the difference was statistically significant ( P<0.001). Univariate Cox analysis found AJCC stage, T stage, N stage, M stage and surgery were prognostic factors in patients with IPMN-B. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that M1 stage ( HR=2.125, 95% CI 1.472-3.066, P<0.001) was independent risk factor of prognosis while surgery ( HR=2.983, 95% CI 2.106-4.224, P<0.001) was independent protective factor of prognosis. Conclusion:The AJCC staging system is an important predictor for evaluating the prognosis of IPMN-B patients. Surgery could significantly improve the prognosis of patients with IPMN-B.