Risk factors for acute cholangitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography and construction of the nomogram / 中华消化内镜杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the risk factors for acute cholangitis after endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) and to construct its nomogram.Methods:Clinical data of patients who underwent ERCP for common bile duct stones in the First Hospital of Lanzhou University from January 2014 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. A total of 95 patients with acute cholangitis after the operation (the acute cholangitis group) were included and 285 patients without acute cholangitis after the operation (the non-acute cholangitis group) were selected by random sampling at 1∶3 via the software. Logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the risk factors for acute cholangitis after ERCP. A nomogram model was established to predict the incidence of acute cholangitis after ERCP based on the results of multivariate analysis.Results:Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in age, combination with diabetes, levels of alanine aminotransferase, alkaline phosphatase and glucose, roughness in gallbladder wall, bile duct diameter, stenosis in lower bile duct, proportion of patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde biliary drainage and endoscopic nasobiliary drainage between the two groups ( P<0.05). Logistic multivariate regression analysis showed that advanced age ( OR=1.108, 95% CI1.079-1.138, P<0.001), combination with diabetes ( OR=4.524, 95% CI1.299-15.758, P=0.018), roughness in gallbladder wall ( OR=2.495, 95% CI1.106-5.630, P=0.028), increased bile duct diameter ( OR=1.303, 95% CI1.181-1.437, P<0.001), and stenosis in lower bile duct ( OR=4.192, 95% CI2.508-7.005, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for acute cholangitis after ERCP. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, the nomogram of acute cholangitis after ERCP was established. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.887. Conclusion:Advanced age, combination with diabetes, rough gallbladder wall, increased diameter of bile duct and stenosis in lower bile duct are independent risk factors for acute cholangitis after ERCP. Clinicians can make clinical intervention based on the nomogram of risk factors above to improve the prognosis of patients.