Establishment and validation of a nomogram to predict progression free survival of patients with thymoma / 中华胸心血管外科杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective:To explore the prognostic risk factors of thymoma patients after resection, and establish a novel nomogram to predict progression free survival(PFS) of patients with thymoma.Methods:A retrospectively analysis was performed on clinicopathological datas of 267 cases of thymoma patients underwent thymoma resection in Beijing Tongren Hospital from January 2010 to December 2019. The univariate and multivariate Cox risk ratio models were used to analyze the related factors that might affect PFS, and the prediction nomogram of PFS after thymoma resection was established using the screened independent risk factors. Then the predictive ability of the model was evaluated. Results:The univariate analysis showed that age, type of surgery, completeness of resection, WHO histologic classification, TNM stage and postoperative adjuvant therapy were significantly correlated with PFS after thymoma resection( P<0.05). The multivariate analysis showed that only age and TNM stage were independent prognostic factors affecting PFS after thymoma resection( P<0.05). The concordance index( C- index) of the prediction model for the prognosis of thymoma patients established by this method was 0.866(95% CI 0.809-0.923), which had remarkable predictive efficiency. Conclusion:The nomogram model is constructed and verified based on age and TNM stage, excluding the interference of other clinicopathological factors on prognosis assessment, and which is convenient for clinicians to quickly and individually evaluate the prognosis of patients after thymoma resection.