Current status changing trend and influencing factors of pancreatic cancer disease burden in Chengde of Hebei Province in 2010 - 2020 / 公共卫生与预防医学

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the disease burden status, trends and possible influencing factors of pancreatic cancer in Chengde of Hebei from 2010 to 2020, in order to provide theoretical basis for the preventionof pancreatic cancer. Methods Using the global burden of disease open database, the incidence rate, mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years of life lost with disability (YLD) and disability adjusted life year (DALY) of pancreatic cancer in the region are obtained,average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated using joinpoint model to test the trend of disease burden change of pancreatic cancer patients from 2010 to 2020. At the same time, the patient characteristics such as hypertension, diabetes and other categorical variables were set as dummy variables, and the risk factors affecting the mortality of patients with pancreatic cancer were analyzed by linear regression. Results In 2010, there were 15 new cases of pancreatic cancer and 13 deaths in Chengde District , Hebei Province. The YLLs caused by pancreatic cancer accounted for 70.67% of DALY. In 2020, there were 160 new cases of pancreatic cancer and 147 deaths in Chengde, Hebei Province. The YLLs caused by pancreatic cancer accounted for 96.02% of DALY. From 2010 to 2020, the incidence of pancreatic cancer increased by 9.79%, and the incidence rate increased by 7.81%, showing an obvious upward trend (APCC =2.20%, P 28.0 and pancreatitis (OR=1.574 , 95% CI 1.328-3.045) were all risk factors for death of patients with pancreatic cancer (OR>1) . Conclusion From 2010 to 2020, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer among local residents in Chengde of Hebei showed an upward trend, and the disease burden was also increasing year by year. The basic diseases of diabetes and chronic pancreatitis increase the death risk and should be protected.