Value of albumin-related ratios in predicting the risk of death in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure / 临床肝胆病杂志

ABSTRACT

‍ ObjectiveTo investigate and compare the value of albumin-related ratios ［total bilirubin-to-albumin ratio （TAR）， creatinine-to-albumin ratio （CAR）， prothrombin time-international normalized ratio-to-albumin ratio （IAR）， neutrophil count-to-albumin ratio （NAR）， and red blood cell distribution width-to-albumin ratio （RAR）］ in predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure （HBV-ACLF）. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for 354 patients with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to Department of Infectious Diseases， The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University， from June 2017 to February 2022， and according to their prognosis at 3 months of follow-up， they were divided into survival group （n=272） and death group （n=82）. Related indices were recorded for all patients， including age， sex， complications， and the results of routine blood test， liver function， and coagulation for the first time after admission， and albumin-related ratios and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease （MELD） score were calculated. The t-test was used for comparison of normally distributed continuous data between groups， and the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of non-normally distribution continuous data between groups； the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. The Spearman correlation test was used to investigate the correlation between albumin-related ratios and MELD score. The Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the association of MELD score， TAR， CAR， IAR， NAR， and RAR with poor prognosis. The area under the ROC curve （AUC） was used to as sess the accuracy of albumin-related ratios and MELD score in predicting the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF patients， and the De-Long test was used for the comparison of AUC. ResultsCompared with the death group， the survival group had significantly lower MELD score （Z=-8.071， P<0.001）， TAR （Z=-6.695， P<0.001）， CAR （Z=-4.463， P<0.001）， IAR （Z=-7.912， P<0.001）， NAR （Z=-4.061， P<0.001）， and RAR （Z=-4.788， P<0.001）. MELD score was positively correlated with CAR （r=0.616， P<0.001）， IAR （r=0.733， P<0.001）， TAR （r=0.657， P<0.001）， NAR （r=0.392， P<0.001）， and RAR （r=0.380， P<0.001）. The multivariate regression analysis of MELD score and albumin-related ratios showed that high TAR （odds ratio ［OR］=1.014， 95% confidence interval ［CI］： 1.008 — 1.020， P<0.001） and high IAR （OR=22.052， 95%CI： 6.937 — 70.103， P<0.001） were independent risk factors for death. The ROC curves were plotted for albumin-related ratios and MELD score to evaluate their discriminatory ability for mortality， and the results showed that MELD score， TAR， CAR， IAR， NAR， and RAR had an AUC of 0.794， 0.744， 0.663， 0.788， 0.648， and 0.674， respectively， among which MELD score had the highest sensitivity of 86.59% and CAR had the highest specificity of 77.57%. TAR combined with IAR had an AUC of 0.809， with a sensitivity of 76.8% and a specificity of 71.3%. Subgroup analysis of HBV-ACLF showed that TAR combined with IAR had the highest AUC values of 0.884 and 0.733， respectively， in patients with type A or type C HBV-ACLF. ConclusionTAR and IAR can be used as simple and effective prognostic tools to predict the 90-day mortality of HBV-ACLF patients.