Social distancing measures could have reduced estimated deaths related to COVID-19 in Brazil / Medidas de distanciamento social podem ter reduzido as mortes estimadas relacionadas à COVID-19 no Brasil

ABSTRACT

Social distancing was planned as a preventive measure to control the extensive spread of COVID-19. COVID-19-related deaths in Brazil were analyzed during the period of social distancing measures. Mortality data for COVID-19 was obtained from the Worldometer website (www.worldometer.info). Deaths were estimated up to the 31st day after the occurrence of the 5th COVID-19-related death in Brazil. Social distance was measured using Google's community mobility reports (https//www.google.com/covid19/mobility/). The Brazilian epidemic curves were interconnected, and mathematical models were evaluated to fit the mortality estimation curves. The optimistic model was defined in the opening period of social distancing and, therefore, in the lower mobility (40-60%). The realistic model was calculated according to relaxed social distance measures (<40%) and the pessimistic model was calculated based on the transmission rate between 2-3. Thus, the equations of the mathematical models provided the outcomes for the date of June 9, 2020, as follows realistic model with 40,623 deaths, pessimistic model with 64,310 deaths and the optimistic model with a projection of 31,384 deaths. As a result of these analyzes, on May 24, 2020, there were a total of 22,965 deaths related to COVID-19, and those deaths included within the proposed mathematical models were 17,452 for the optimistic model, 22,623 for the realistic model and 32,825 for the pessimistic model. Thus, it is concluded that social distancing measures promoted by the Brazilian public managers contributes to the reduction in approximately ten thousand deaths related to COVID-19 in the current pandemic scenario.

RESUMO

INTRODUÇÃO: O distanciamento social foi planejado como uma medida preventiva para controlar a disseminação extensiva da COVID-19. Nós analisamos as mortes relacionadas à COVID-19 no Brasil durante o período de medidas de distanciamento social. Os dados de mortalidade do COVID-19 foram obtidos no site da Worldometer (www.worldometer.info). As mortes foram estimadas até o 31º dia após a 5ª morte. O distanciamento social foi medido por meio dos relatórios de mobilidade comunitária COVID-19; Google (https//www.google.com/covid19/mobility/). As curvas epidêmicas brasileiras foram interligadas e os modelos matemáticos foram avaliados para se ajustarem às curvas de estimativa de mortalidade. O modelo otimista foi fundado no período de abertura da distância social e, portanto, na menor mobilidade (40-60%). O modelo realista foi calculado de acordo com medidas de distanciamento social relaxado (<40%) e o modelo pessimista foi calculado com base em R0 entre 2-3. Sob essa situação, o modelo matemático realista estimou 40.623 mortes em 9 de junho de 2020, enquanto o modelo pessimista antecipou 64.310 mortes e o modelo otimista projetou 31.384. Até hoje (24 de maio de 2020), um total de 22.965 foram relatadas, enquanto nosso modelo projetou 17.452 para o modelo otimista, 22.623 para o modelo realista e 32.825 para o modelo pessimista. Observamos movimento reduzido ao longo deste período. Em resumo, o modelo matemático sugere que a mobilidade reduzida da comunidade diminuiu o total estimado de mortes relacionadas à COVID-19 no Brasil. Enfatizamos que mais procedimentos metodológicos serão necessários para confirmar esta teoria