Short-term forecasting of daily COVID-19 cases in Brazil by using the Holts model
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
; 53: e20200283, 2020. tab, graf
Article
en En
| SES-SP, ColecionaSUS, LILACS
| ID: biblio-1136844
Biblioteca responsable:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
We evaluated the performance of the Holt's model to forecast the daily COVID-19 reported cases in Brazil and three Brazilian states.METHODS:
We chose the date of the first COVID-19 case to April 25, 2020, as the training period, and April 26 to May 3, 2020, as the test period.RESULTS:
The Holt's model performed well in forecasting the cases in Brazil and in São Paulo and Minas Gerais states, but the forecasts were underestimated in Rio de Janeiro state.Conclusions:
The Holt's model can be an adequate short-term forecasting method if their assumptions are adequately verified and validated by experts.Palabras clave
Texto completo:
1
Índice:
LILACS
Asunto principal:
Neumonía Viral
/
Modelos Estadísticos
/
Infecciones por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
/
Predicción
/
Betacoronavirus
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Humans
País/Región como asunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Asunto de la revista:
MEDICINA TROPICAL
Año:
2020
Tipo del documento:
Article