Towards a safer Bajhang

ABSTRACT

The pages that follow present an earthquake scenario for the district of Bajhang, Nepal. It tells the story of three people, and what happens to them and their families during a plausible but hypothetical earthquake. This is not a prediction. This story, and the study upon which it is based, are intended as an example of what may happen if a major earthquake strikes Bajhang in the near future. Bajhang will always face a risk of earthquakes. The Main Himalayan Thrust fault, which underlies much of Nepal, is the source for potentially very damaging earthquakes. The last very large earthquake in this region occurred in BS 1562 / 1505 AD. 1 Another earthquake could occur any time, because strain has been increasing on the fault ever since. This scenario shows the consequences of such an event, and the knowledge can be used to plan for safer outcomes. The story incorporates insights from professionals around the world who study earthquake effects, research on historic earthquakes, and documented experiences from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. The consequences are based on standard methods that engineers and scientists use to estimate the shaking, damage and human impact a given earthquake may cause. The scenario earthquake strikes on a weekday in May at 1:35 PM. Across the district, adults are working, and children are on recess at school. Measuring magnitude 7.8, the earthquake originates approximately 100 kilometers northwest of Jayaprithivi on the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. It is not the worst earthquake that could happen, but it causes serious losses and suffering. Shaking throughout Bajhang and most of Sudurpashchim Pradesh is very strong, causing the consequences explained in this narrative: casualties, damaged buildings, landslides, fire, isolation, loss of power and water, and economic hardship.