Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the dengue transmission dynamics in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Brazil
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
;
55: e0671, 2022. graf
Artículo
en Inglés
|
LILACS-Express
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-1387545
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT Background:
This research addresses two questions (1) how El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate variability and how it influences dengue transmission in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (MRR), and (2) whether the epidemic in MRR municipalities has any connection and synchronicity.Methods:
Wavelet analysis and cross-correlation were applied to characterize seasonality, multiyear cycles, and relative delays between the series. This study was developed into two distinct periods. Initially, we performed periodic dengue incidence and intercity epidemic synchronism analyses from 2001 to 2017. We then defined the period from 2001 to 2016 to analyze the periodicity of climatic variables and their coherence with dengue incidence.Results:
Our results showed systematic cycles of 3-4 years with a recent shortening trend of 2-3 years. Climatic variability, such as positive anomalous temperatures and reduced rainfall due to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is partially linked to the changing epidemiology of the disease, as this condition provides suitable environments for the Aedes aegypti lifecycle.Conclusion:
ENSO may have influenced the dengue temporal patterns in the MRR, transiently reducing its main way of multiyear variability (3-4 years) to 2-3 years. Furthermore, when the epidemic coincided with El Niño years, it spread regionally and was highly synchronized.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
País/Región como asunto:
America del Sur
/
Brasil
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Asunto de la revista:
Medicina Tropical
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
/
Documento de proyecto
País de afiliación:
Brasil
Institución/País de afiliación:
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais/BR
/
Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz/BR
/
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco/BR
/
Universidade Federal do Oeste da Bahia/BR
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