Predictors of dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever in Punjab, Pakistan

ABSTRACT

This study was conducted to assess the future threat of Dengue Fever and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Punjab, Pakistan. Observational and Analytical Study. This study was conducted at Directorate General Health Services Punjab, Lahore and data was collected from 1st Jan 2008 to 31 st Dec. 2008. Primary data of laboratory confirmed cases was collected from all levels of health facilities of public and private sector. Disease vectors were collected from Lahore. Data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from website of department of meteorology Pakistan to determine the potential values. Vector-bone diseases are the serious health problems worldwide, including Pakistan. Coverage of control interventions and physio-environmental factors were also analyzed. In 2008 there was a largest epidemic of dengue fever in Punjab and 1382 cases were reported in 16 districts out of 36, which increased in number of cases up to 5724 and district up to 34 in 2010. Our results suggest that rainfall and temperature were predictive of the abundance of Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus and in time interventions have positive significant impact on disease transmission. This paper offered useful information that the climatic and physio-environmental factors like built-up, agriculture, water bodies and forest areas have different influence on the dengue fever incidences. This will help in focusing the preventive measures being applied on priority in very high-risk zones and save time and money. No special funds were used for this study