The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
;
105(2): 179-183, Mar. 2010. ilus, tab
Artículo
en Inglés
| LILACS
| ID: lil-544624
ABSTRACT
We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 ± 9 from Chile, 136 ± 27 from the USA and 301 ± 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.
Texto completo:
Disponible
Índice:
LILACS (Américas)
Asunto principal:
Viaje
/
Gripe Humana
/
Subtipo H1N1 del Virus de la Influenza A
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudio:
Estudio de etiología
/
Factores de riesgo
Límite:
Humanos
País/Región como asunto:
America del Norte
/
America del Sur
/
Argentina
/
Brasil
/
Chile
Idioma:
Inglés
Revista:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Asunto de la revista:
Medicina Tropical
/
Parasitología
Año:
2010
Tipo del documento:
Artículo
País de afiliación:
Brasil
Institución/País de afiliación:
Fiocruz/BR
/
Universidade de São Paulo/BR
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