Predictive model for extubation delay undergoing non-emergency major surgery based on random forest algorithm / 临床麻醉学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To construct and validate a clinical prediction model for delayed extubation undergoing non-emergency major surgery based on the random forest algorithm.Methods Clinical data of 7 528 patients undergoing non-emergency major surgery under general anesthesia from January 2018 to De-cember 2022 were retrospectively collected.The patients were divided into two groups according to whether extubation was performed within 2 hours after surgery:non-delayed extubation group(≤2 hours)and de-layed extubation group(＞2 hours).All the patients were randomly divided into a training set and a valida-tion set in a ratio of 7 ∶ 3.The predictive factors for delayed extubation after surgery were screened through LASSO regression and Logistic regression.The random forest model was established and verified by random forest algorithm.Results There were 123 patients(1.6%)experienced delayed extubation after surgery.ASA physical status,department,intraoperative use of flurbiprofen ester,dexmedetomidine,glucocorticoid,hypocalcemia,severe anemia,intraoperative blood transfusion,and airway spasm were identified as inde-pendent predictive factors for delayed extubation.The area under curve(AUC)value of the random forest prediction model in the validation set was0.751(95%CI0.742-0.778),and the sensitivity was98.1%,and the specificity was 41.9%.Conclusion The predictive model of delayed extubation undergoing non-e-mergency major surgery based on random forest algorithm has a good predictive value,which may be helpful to prevent delayed extubation undergoing non-emergency major surgery.