Survival analysis of cancer cases diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai:a population-based study / 肿瘤

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the survival of cancer cases diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai. Methods:Data on new cancer cases with dead and follow-up information were obtained from the population-based cancer registry and vital statistics system of Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Survival indicators stratified by year of diagnosis,gender,site and age were analyzed.Number of cases and proportion were calculated.The observed survival rates were calculated based on the life table.The probabilities of surviving from 0 to 99 years old were estimated according to the Elandt-Johnson model,and then the cumulative expected survival rates were calculated according to the Ederer Ⅱ method.Finally,the relative survival rates and average annual percent changes of their trends were calculated.The age-standardized relative survival rates adjusted by International Cancer Survival Standard weights were calculated. Results:Total 644 520 new cancer cases were diagnosed during 2002-2013 in Shanghai,accounting for 643 545(99.85％)cases included in the observed cohort for survival analysis.The 5-year observed survival rate increased from 37.61％to 46.47％.The 5-year relative survival rate increased from 42.1 8％to 51.11％.The 5-year age-standardized relative survival rate increased from 40.57％to 49.80％.Among the 5-year relative survival rates of cases diagnosed during 2011 to 2013,99.43％of thyroid cancer was the highest,followed by female breast cancer(88.35％)and corpus uteri cancer(85.56％);5.87％of pancreas cancer was the lowest,followed by gallbladder cancer(13.64％)and oesophagus cancer(17.72％).the rate of lung cancer with the largest number of cases was 23.59％,followed by colorectal cancer(59.82％)and stomach cancer(38.65％).The 5-year relative survival rate of total cases of all sites increased from 40.55％in 2002 to 52.77％in 2013,with an average annual percent change of 2.40％.13 cancer types showed increasing trends,such as liver cancer and lung cancer,while the trends of other cancer types were not statistically significant,such as pancreatic cancer and gallbladder cancer. Conclusion:The diagnostic levels and survival rates of cancer cases have been improved continuously in Shanghai.The trends of different cancer types were varied.