The spatial distribution and dynamics of human rabies cases at the county level in Henan province / 中华流行病学杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To study the spatial distribution and dynamics of human rabies cases at the county level, in Henan province to provide scientific evidence for the development of control program on rabies. Methods Data of human rabies cases at the county level from 2004 to 2010 in Henan province were analyzed by Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. Data calculation was conducted manually. Results According to the level of α =0.05 being set, there were three different results appeared: the first was fitted negative binomial distribution in 2004, 2005,2007 and 2009; the second was prioritized negative binomial distribution, but the poisson distribution could not be excluded in 2008 and 2010; the last one was fitted neither negative binomial distribution nor poisson distribution in 2006. By the clustering parameter k, the clustering degree at county level decreased from 2004 to 2008, then ascending in 2009 but descending again in 2010. The degree of clustering showed a positive correlation with the county mean cases in the prevalent counties (r=0.807,P=0.028). Conclusion As a whole,the distribution of human rabies at county level in Henan from 2004 to 2010 showed negative binomial distribution and presented the spatial clustering.However, the degree of clustering decreased in recent years and showed that the infection resource was possibly scattered more evenly at the county level.